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PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 8:05 am 
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Game Over for the Climate

"GLOBAL warming isn’t a prediction. It is happening. That is why I was so troubled to read a recent interview with President Obama in Rolling Stone in which he said that Canada would exploit the oil in its vast tar sands reserves “regardless of what we do.”

If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it will be game over for the climate.

Canada’s tar sands, deposits of sand saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our entire history. If we were to fully exploit this new oil source, and continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere eventually would reach levels higher than in the Pliocene era, more than 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was at least 50 feet higher than it is now. That level of heat-trapping gases would assure that the disintegration of the ice sheets would accelerate out of control. Sea levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the planet’s species would be driven to extinction. Civilization would be at risk.

That is the long-term outlook. But near-term, things will be bad enough. Over the next several decades, the Western United States and the semi-arid region from North Dakota to Texas will develop semi-permanent drought, with rain, when it does come, occurring in extreme events with heavy flooding. Economic losses would be incalculable. More and more of the Midwest would be a dust bowl. California’s Central Valley could no longer be irrigated. Food prices would rise to unprecedented levels.

If this sounds apocalyptic, it is. This is why we need to reduce emissions dramatically. President Obama has the power not only to deny tar sands oil additional access to Gulf Coast refining, which Canada desires in part for export markets, but also to encourage economic incentives to leave tar sands and other dirty fuels in the ground.

The global warming signal is now louder than the noise of random weather, as I predicted would happen by now in the journal Science in 1981. Extremely hot summers have increased noticeably. We can say with high confidence that the recent heat waves in Texas and Russia, and the one in Europe in 2003, which killed tens of thousands, were not natural events — they were caused by human-induced climate change.

We have known since the 1800s that carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere. The right amount keeps the climate conducive to human life. But add too much, as we are doing now, and temperatures will inevitably rise too high. This is not the result of natural variability, as some argue. The earth is currently in the part of its long-term orbit cycle where temperatures would normally be cooling. But they are rising — and it’s because we are forcing them higher with fossil fuel emissions.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280 parts per million to 393 p.p.m. over the last 150 years. The tar sands contain enough carbon — 240 gigatons — to add 120 p.p.m. Tar shale, a close cousin of tar sands found mainly in the United States, contains at least an additional 300 gigatons of carbon. If we turn to these dirtiest of fuels, instead of finding ways to phase out our addiction to fossil fuels, there is no hope of keeping carbon concentrations below 500 p.p.m. — a level that would, as earth’s history shows, leave our children a climate system that is out of their control.

We need to start reducing emissions significantly, not create new ways to increase them. We should impose a gradually rising carbon fee, collected from fossil fuel companies, then distribute 100 percent of the collections to all Americans on a per-capita basis every month. The government would not get a penny. This market-based approach would stimulate innovation, jobs and economic growth, avoid enlarging government or having it pick winners or losers. Most Americans, except the heaviest energy users, would get more back than they paid in increased prices. Not only that, the reduction in oil use resulting from the carbon price would be nearly six times as great as the oil supply from the proposed pipeline from Canada, rendering the pipeline superfluous, according to economic models driven by a slowly rising carbon price.

But instead of placing a rising fee on carbon emissions to make fossil fuels pay their true costs, leveling the energy playing field, the world’s governments are forcing the public to subsidize fossil fuels with hundreds of billions of dollars per year. This encourages a frantic stampede to extract every fossil fuel through mountaintop removal, longwall mining, hydraulic fracturing, tar sands and tar shale extraction, and deep ocean and Arctic drilling.

President Obama speaks of a “planet in peril,” but he does not provide the leadership needed to change the world’s course. Our leaders must speak candidly to the public — which yearns for open, honest discussion — explaining that our continued technological leadership and economic well-being demand a reasoned change of our energy course. History has shown that the American public can rise to the challenge, but leadership is essential.

The science of the situation is clear — it’s time for the politics to follow. This is a plan that can unify conservatives and liberals, environmentalists and business. Every major national science academy in the world has reported that global warming is real, caused mostly by humans, and requires urgent action. The cost of acting goes far higher the longer we wait — we can’t wait any longer to avoid the worst and be judged immoral by coming generations.

James Hansen directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and is the author of “Storms of My Grandchildren.”

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 12:14 pm 
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Human-Induced Ocean Warming Study Addresses The 'Dominant Role' Of People

"Despite the onslaught of politicians attempting to project an air of question around man-made climate change, studies continue to emerge proving the connection between human actions and our changing environment. The most recent study, published in Nature Climate Change, finds an "anthropogenic fingerprint" (human influence) on our warming oceans.

The study, "Human-Induced Global Ocean Warming On Multidecadal Timescales," was conducted by researchers in the U.S., Australia, Japan and India. Based on observations of rising upper-ocean temperatures, the researchers used improved estimates of ocean temperatures to examine the causes of our warming ocean.

According to a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory press release, the study shows that over the past 50 years, observed ocean warming is explained only when greenhouse gas increases are included in the models.

Lead author and LLNL climate scientist Peter Gleckler said in the press release, "The bottom line is that this study substantially strengthens the conclusion that most of the observed global ocean warming over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities."

Please read the full article

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 7:14 am 
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Scientists uncover evidence of impending tipping point for Earth

Earth May Reach Tipping Point


Berkeley Initiative in Global Change Biology

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 7:56 pm 
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Book Review: Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity, by James Hansen, 2009

James Hansen is a true prophet of the new age for planet earth. He explains with great clarity the scientific and social problem of climate change, which he sums up by saying that “coal trains are death trains.” Against all the political hawing that seeks a negotiated solution, Hansen explains that the laws of physics do not compromise, and that we are placing our planet on an inexorable death track by our psychotic fixation on fossil fuels. His argument suggests that the evil corruption of our political systems by the big energy firms will kill all life on earth unless we transform global politics with a new energy paradigm.

As a leading spokesman for America’s NASA space agency, among the most authoritative scientific organisations in the world, Hansen’s views are guided by simple physics. Mars is very cold because it has no CO2 blanket, earth is liveable because our CO2 blanket is just the right thickness, and Venus is a 450 degree boiling hellhole because it has a CO2 atmosphere. CO2 lets light in but does not let heat out. Every step we make towards the Venus Syndrome is seriously poisonous for the earth. Coal is the main poison we are addicted to. We have to kick the habit of fossil fuels, which are more cancerous than nicotine. But like with other drugs of addiction, we talk all the time about cutting down on our use of fossil carbon, while in fact our use level is growing at an accelerating rate, like the tolerance of a heroin addict.

Towards the close of Storms of My Grandchildren, Hansen sketches a beautifully poignant and terrifying science fiction story. Aliens living on an earth-like world 40 light years away discover our radio signals in the twentieth century, at a time when their own sun is swelling to cook them. They send a ship to colonise earth which arrives after 500 years. They are too late, and find a dead planet. Thick clouds swirl over boiling oceans. Continents that once supported abundant life are now desolate deserts. We killed our home.

Who killed Cock Robin? Not I say the energy barons, not I say the politicians, not I say the stupid environmentalist opponents of fast nuclear energy. But for Hansen all are judged as guilty, condemned for failure to comprehend the fragile complexity of our wonderful planetary biosystem and the urgent need for action to reverse global warming.

In the Bible, Jesus Christ tells us to beware of false prophets. Christians have sown confusion by their aggressive insistence that true prophets must express a magical supernatural message from God. Unlike the Christian tradition, all of Hansen’s prophecies are based solely on evidence. There is certainly a strongly Biblical apocalyptic tone in Hansen’s explanation of how our CO2 emissions are unleashing the four horsemen of death, war, plague and famine. He fully expects catastrophic sea level rise this century. Yet there is nothing false in Hansen’s prophecies. They are the scientific reality, against which the popular indifference and denial is a mad sickness. Climate denial is worse than Holocaust denial. Hitler only killed millions – the coal kings will kill all life unless we stop them.

One of the most interesting aspects of Storms of My Grandchildren is Hansen’s analysis of political tactics. He gets to meet national leaders, and despairs that the lobbying power of money is greater than the power of truth. In the three years since he wrote this book in 2009, the climate of political debate has only worsened, with arrogant denialists emboldened by their idiotic group-think, like a pack of Nazi thugs delighting in their freedom to intimidate and bully. Even as Hurricane Sandy showed everything Hansen predicted to be completely true as it devastated the US northeast, Obama expresses nothing but platitudes about protecting the planet, showing he is a weakling puppet of the evil despots who run the USA.

Hansen provides an excellent and highly readable scientific factual explanation of why the climate situation is dire. Everyone should read it. But his suggestion for how to solve the problem, focussed on building popular support for 350.org, is not the strongest part of the book. I don’t disagree that the goal of reducing CO2 to 350 parts per million in the air is needed. But the problem is that this worthy political strategy is far from enough to address the scale of the climate problem, failing to come to grips with the moral, psychological and spiritual foundations of the political and economic drivers of business as usual.

The great scientist Buckminster Fuller once said that it is more important to build the new than to fight the old. Hansen flags this view with his suggestion that perhaps a new technology, for example in algae biofuel, will save us. Such a change of our energy security paradigm could be implemented through a massive resource deployment, modelled on the Manhattan and Apollo Projects that produced the atom bomb and the moon landing. I think this is true, and agree with Bjorn Lomborg of the Copenhagen Consensus Center that funding of research and development into ways to stabilise the global climate is the biggest human security problem of our day.

But Hansen puts far too much weight on the market mechanism of price signals through carbon tax. Tax is necessary but not sufficient. The urgent sound of the four horsemen of the climate apocalypse is bearing down upon us, like Tolkien’s ring-wraiths riding in black. We need dramatic sudden change or they will kill us. Tax reform did not stop Hitler, and nor will it stop the evil momentum of carbon extraction.

Despite his bold language, Hansen retains a scientific caution regarding moral argument. He expressed doubt about the merit of condemning his enemies as wicked. He does not describe global warming as an apocalyptic clash between the forces of good and evil, although that is precisely what it is. Evil must be named and fought. The evil vested interests of business as usual have poisoned the public mind so they can keep poisoning our air.

Good and evil are religious concepts. As a scientist, Hansen does not wish to express the moral certainty of a religious evangelist who preaches that the end of the world is nigh. He is no John the Baptist preaching in the wilderness with a message of forgiveness for the repentance of sin. But that is what we need. The world of fossil fuels is at an end, and we behold a new heaven and a new earth, a sustainable planetary ecology. The psychological mystery of how people can ignore the big story of planetary survival is essentially a religious problem, grounded in old deep concepts of human identity as spiritual rather than natural.

We need a new global natural spirituality, repenting of the false religion of the last age. The alienation of human spirituality from nature is at the core of the economic and political drivers of our present climate rampage.

The Bible tells us at Revelation 11:18 that the wrath of God is against those who destroy the earth. This little-known verse would surprise many if they pondered it, since it shows that God is with those who are working to sustain human life, not against us. Scientists are so used to seeing religion as an enemy that they have left the powerful resources of religion to the false prophets of supernatural redemption and their farcical magic stories of rapture. But as this verse from Revelation 11:18 shows, religion can itself be redeemed as a force for good against evil. A new Christian reformation can build on the observation that only a God can save us, recognising that God can only work through natural science.

We truly are lost and fallen, stumbling about stupidly in the dark, fouling our own nest with CO2 emissions that are a ticking time bomb. Rather than build a secular consensus, we need a global transformation of thinking for a new age, placing the mythical messianic stories of the Second Coming of Jesus Christ within the entirely scientific understanding of our real planetary fate. Hansen provides essential steps along this path.

Robert Tulip, 25 December 2012


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:11 am 
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Thanks for that book review, Robert. Hansen is a very important voice, to say the least.

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I was curious about the relevant passage in Revelation, 11:18:

Quote:
"And the nations were enraged, and Your wrath came, and the time came for the dead to be judged, and the time to *reward Your bond-servants the prophets and the *saints and those who fear Your name, the small and the great, and to destroy those who destroy the earth." (NASB)

Highlighting the germane parts, we get:

Quote:
"Your wrath came, and the time came for the dead to be judged...and to destroy those who destroy the earth."

"Your wrath came...to destroy those who destroy the earth."

The Greek is as follows:

Quote:
...ἦλθεν ἡ ὀργή σου...διαφθεῖραι τοὺς διαφθείροντας τὴν γῆν

Note the word ὀργή or orgé here. Yes, it looks like "orgy," but the word ὀργή means "wrath," etc.:

Quote:
1) anger, the natural disposition, temper, character

2) movement or agitation of the soul, impulse, desire, any violent emotion, but esp. anger

3) anger, wrath, indignation

4) anger exhibited in punishment, hence used for punishment itself

a) of punishments inflicted by magistrates

Oxford Classical Greek Dictionary defines ὀργή as:

Quote:
impulse; feeling, disposition, temper; passion; eagerness; anger, wrath; punishment

Interestingly, the Greek word that became "orgy," as in sexual license, is ὄργια or orgia, a plural word meaning:

Quote:
secret rites or mysteries

It would appear that, since the word has now come to refer to sex parties, the mysteries were largely sexual in nature.

Another such interesting evolution of a word has occurred with the famous term tekton, in antiquity denoting "craftsman, carpenter" etc., in modern Greek meaning "freemason." This development indicates that the masonic connotation of tekton was emphasized, following the New Testament usage of it, to become dominant in its meaning.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:50 am 
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Prefer to discuss here rather than facebook... (I've deleted my posts on facebook.)

"Climate denial is worse than Holocaust denial", "Hitler only killed millions...", "Arrogant denialists", "idiotic group-think", "a pack of Nazi thugs", "intimidating and bullying". What vile, inflammatory language. Reminds me of the Aussie prof who [code=http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/23/beyond-bizarre-university-of-graz-music-professor-calls-for-skeptic-death-sentences/]called for skeptic death sentences[/code]. I'm a pretty easy going guy, but I don't believe in the global warming catastrophe. Does that mean I deserve this kind of verbal abuse?

As far as James Hansen goes, check out
Code:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/tag/james-hansen/
for some critical veiwpoints.

An increase in CO2, a trace gas, can not cause kinds of heating predicted. To get that kind of heating, the models require a chain reaction: C02 causes a small temperature increase, which evaporates more water (which is the real greenhouse gas) and releases methane etc etc. These chain reactions, or positive feedback loops, are unproven and have not been observed. On the contrary, [code=http://judithcurry.com/category/sensitivity-feedbacks/]the earth tends towards stability[/code] (negative feedback loops).

On top of that, climate science is riddled with all kinds of [code=http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/27/climate-scientists-road-to-hell/]shenanigans[/code].

AND the solutions to this non-problem are more damaging to humans and the earth alike. Inflammatory, fear-mongering, "we're all gonna die" language inspires [code=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ocean-fertilization-experiment-alarms-marine-scientists/article4625695/]stupid desperate acts[/code] that are potentially more damaging than CO2 could ever be. But hey, what have we got to lose, right?

[Edited by moderator to unlink disinformation sites.]

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 9:53 pm 
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James V wrote:
I don't believe in the global warming catastrophe. Does that mean I deserve this kind of verbal abuse?
Hello James V, thank you for your response. Your being uninformed about global warming is no grounds for criticism of you. Similarly, Neville Chamberlain was not a Nazi thug, just very stupid about Hitler's intentions. The people I was criticising are those who have access to data and yet promote disinformation. It is evil to knowingly promote false claims that put those acting on them at grave risk. Climate denial is evil and imperils life on earth.
Quote:
As far as James Hansen goes, check out
Code:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/tag/james-hansen/
for some critical veiwpoints.
I see your deletion of your reference to Watts Up With That from Acharya's Facebook page has deleted my response as well.

To repeat, Watts Up With That is a notorious climate denial disinformation propaganda site and should be ignored. I have amended your links. If you think that site has any rational input, put it in your own words here.
Quote:
An increase in CO2, a trace gas, can not cause kinds of heating predicted. To get that kind of heating, the models require a chain reaction: C02 causes a small temperature increase, which evaporates more water (which is the real greenhouse gas) and releases methane etc etc. These chain reactions, or positive feedback loops, are unproven and have not been observed.
Sorry James V, but you are extremely ignorant of science. Your statement is like saying pulling a trigger cannot fire a bullet because there are causal steps in between. Your CO2 feedback opinion is wrong, and contradicted by glacial ice core and other geological records. James Hansen discusses positive CO2 feedback at some length in Storms of My Grandchildren and at his website http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/. Over geological time scales, small regular orbital changes cause temperature and glaciation change, which in turn change CO2 and albedo (whiteness) producing positive feedback loops. The science is well established, contrary to your denialist assertion.
Quote:
the earth tends towards stability[/url] (negative feedback loops).

The "stability" resulting from anthropogenic global warming could well result from Gaia extincting our species - the peace of the grave. Pray tell, how does dumping gigatonnes of toxic gas into the air promote "stability'?
Quote:
On top of that, climate science is riddled with all kinds of shenanigans. AND the solutions to this non-problem are more damaging to humans and the earth alike. Inflammatory, fear-mongering, "we're all gonna die" language inspires stupid desperate acts that are potentially more damaging than CO2 could ever be. But hey, what have we got to lose, right?

You here attack a small experiment by a Canadian indigenous tribe releasing iron at sea to promote fishery growth. 100 tonnes of iron to grow plankton to improve salmon yield replicates much larger regular natural volcanic processes. You compare this to 30 gigatonnes per year of CO2 emissions. In your words, this tiny salmon experiment is "potentially more damaging than CO2 could ever be." Oh, but the order of magnitude difference is only about one to a billion, and all well-informed scientists see that CO2 emissions imperil life on earth. So you come here to bully and intimidate visionary scientists such as Russ George for his plankton work? James V, you are a disgrace.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 2:43 am 
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Acharya wrote:
I was curious about the relevant passage in Revelation, 11:18: "...Your wrath came...to destroy those who destroy the earth."


Thanks for the analysis of ὀργή. 'Wrath' is one of those difficult traditional terms in theology that are usually interpreted in a strictly magical way, and so tend to get ignored in secular debate. I have mainly seen wrath invoked in recent times by fundamentalist Christians to assert God's displeasure at sexual immorality. Their theology is generally a primitive revenge-driven model, asserting that God supernaturally punishes miscreants against traditional personal morality by directly inflicting floods and other natural evils upon them. Such magical assertions are not scientific. Real causality of wrath has to be far more direct with a plausible chain of effects.

Rev 11:18 contrasts with traditional usage of wrath by being purely scientific, asserting that life is good, that anything that systematically degrades and destroys life is evil, and therefore that the wrath of God is against those who destroy the earth.

So there is a rather extreme irony in this Rev 11:18 usage of wrath as an ecological concept. The main defenders of the wrath of God have generally been indifferent to ecology, being traditionally more focussed on the fiction of obtaining salvation from an imaginary Father in Heaven.

Wrath is a difficult and threatening concept, suggesting a divine odium, anger or hatredagainst unrepentant evil . If God hates those who destroy the earth, as this verse implies, then God is on the side of those who work to preserve the earth. This idea has a simple correlation with the Beatitudes (Matthew 5), where God allegedly blesses the meek, the peacemakers, the pure, the righteous and the merciful. Such values can readily be understood as promoting an ecological awareness, and as criticising the alienated vision of traditional supernatural imaginary faith.

Placing climate change within a theological context is useful. Secular arguments about climate are falling on deaf ears, perhaps because they fail to understand the real depth of human depravity involved in the willingness to destroy the planet. The mythicist approach to theology sees supernatural imagination as at best deluded and self-serving, and at worst as an evil alienated destructive tendency, promoting illusion rather than reality.

If theological concepts such as wrath can be grounded in science, and aligned to evidence rather than fantasy, we can start to construct a modern ethical approach to theology. From the point of view that human flourishing is good, anything that wrecks human flourishing is evil. So perhaps the Christian God can be reconstructed to be scientific, and to support action to avert catastrophic climate change. After all, it is far more useful to believe in a God who is good than one who is evil.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 4:59 am 
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I think it's interesting how people here, of all places, would encourage wave-of-the-hand dismissals, rely on arguments from authority, and encourage people to ignore the other side of the debate.

Sorry, your trigger/bullet analogy is way off base. We're talking about a trace gas that is part of a chaotic system. Not so neat and tidy as a mechanical device designed to work that way.

Comparing me to holocaust deniers is insulting and abusive.

Contrary to your statement, CO2 is not toxic. It's essential to life.

You say I am bullying, and you call me a disgrace. You compare me to holocaust deniers. You say I am uninformed based on next to nothing. And you abuse your moderation privileges to edit my post. Who's the bully here Robert?

I don't feel comfortable continuing this conversation if my opponent is going to edit my posts without my permission for no good reason.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:17 am 
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Hi James!

Haven't heard from you in a while, so I find it curious that this subject of all has garnered your interest. I'm not sure what the beef is here, but I tend to agree with Robert's analysis. I also find it odd that you would use a right-wing apologist argument when it comes to C02: "Contrary to your statement, CO2 is not toxic. It's essential to life." Yes, we know that plants take in C02- we learned that fact in second grade - but they give off OXYGEN, which is even more essential to our life. If we humans breathe C02, we will die. At this point, we can only hope that plants will continue to grow abundantly and to use up the excess C02 we have been pumping into our atmosphere. Yet, that development will require deforestation to be reduced significantly - this is one reason I often recommend the mass-scale planting of hemp (and other plants, of course).

In the meantime, C02 or not, traditional peoples worldwide are reporting that their climate is altering - that's climate change. Island nations are losing territory, while Eskimos note a discernible warming trend in many parts. Innuit are keenly aware that their environment has become very polluted, while people in the Andes relate that they have noticed the shrinking of glaciers. Glacier shrinkage is quite measurable, and it is estimated that some 1.5 billion people globally draw their water from glaciers. Once those are gone, we are talking a huge migration of people that will likely cause many millions of deaths. It is easy to see a comparison here with the world's most murderous dictators.

Penguin and polar bear populations are struggling mighty, while our oceans are becoming depleted of fish. There are massive gyres of garbage in oceans globally, and toxic chemicals seep into our waterways in countless places worldwide, with xenoestrogens wreaking havoc in male populations of many species. We barely dodged a bullet with the honeybees - and the repercussions of that near-extinction event may still be tragic. Our environment is clearly on the edge of collapse, and it's largely because of human activity and pollution.

I would agree that fouling one's own nest in this manner is stupid and thoughtless, and we are looking at a mass die-off not seen since the end of the last Ice Age. Massive storms are simply one of the manifestations for this world out of balance. It would seem to be the height of folly not only to deny such facts but also to attempt to keep someone from stating them blatantly, a slap in the face of the native peoples who are trying to get some assistance in preventing their lands from being destroyed by human activity. In the end, we are all native peoples, and our planet is in dire straits.

In any event, climate change is obviously real, as is the pollution of our world from all directions. Our future appears grim, and Hansen's warning in that regard is important.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 1:17 pm 
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Hi Acharya! Would like to catch up sometime! We just had baby #3! :shock:

I'm around. I keep updated on your work via facebook and the old list, but don't comment much anymore. But yeah, I find the climate debate interesting, mostly because I was a believer myself , having never read the critics nor given them any credence. Imagine my surprise! It is an odd feeling that a left leaning person such as myself should side with (moslty) right-wingers on the CO2 issue. Strange bedfellows.

Acharya wrote:
I also find it odd that you would use a right-wing apologist argument when it comes to C02: "Contrary to your statement, CO2 is not toxic. It's essential to life." Yes, we know that plants take in C02- we learned that fact in second grade - but they give off OXYGEN, which is even more essential to our life. If we humans breathe C02, we will die.


Perhaps you are thinking of carbon monoxide? There's an old saying that toxicity is a question of dose. Carbon Dioxide is indeed toxic at levels exceeding 7% of the atmosphere. Thinking in those terms water is also toxic. For CO2 to become toxic it would have to increase from the current 390 ppm to 80,000 ppm. Climate scientists talk about a doubling over the next 100 years or so (iirc). So stating that CO2 is toxic, at the levels we're talking about, is incorrect.

Regarding the comparison with murderous dictators, I find that offensive. Such comparisons implicitly sanction nasty behavior towards those of us who do not believe in the global catastrophe narrative.

Regarding polar bears, my understanding is polar bears are doing fine, but as always I stand to be corrected.

Regarding general pollution, it makes me sick to my stomach to think we are dumping toxins in our water and air. But that is a separate issue. It is beyond unfortunate that everyone's fears are focused on non-toxic plant food. Imagine if all the money and attention being pumped into CO2 research and mitigation schemes were directed to fight REAL problems happening RIGHT NOW.

When the general public figures out that the planet hasn't warmed for 16 years despite a 12% increase in CO2, what then? How long will the credulity last? I am hopeful that environmental issues as a whole do not lose public support because of the CO2 fiasco.

Finally, I would appreciate my earlier post be restored to it's original form. If there is some site policy I am violating, I'm all ears. I would like to believe I can express an unpopular view here without being verbally abused and without having my posts edited by moderators.

Anyways, if we all agreed, there wouldn't be much to discuss, would there?

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 1:24 pm 
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James V wrote:
I think it's interesting how people here, of all places, would encourage wave-of-the-hand dismissals, rely on arguments from authority, and encourage people to ignore the other side of the debate.
James, your comments here are incorrect. I encouraged you to put the arguments from your disinformation site in your own words here, rather than just rely on propaganda links to libel Hansen. In response to your false assertion about positive feedback, I linked to detailed scientific discussion, and would be pleased to explore this in more detail. The scientific peer review process is the very opposite of "argument from authority" so your acccusation against me is mere handwaving projection on your part.
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Sorry, your trigger/bullet analogy is way off base. We're talking about a trace gas that is part of a chaotic system. Not so neat and tidy as a mechanical device designed to work that way.
Climate change is chaotic but predictable over the medium term. Adding a teratonne of this "trace gas" (as humans are doing with CO2) is like dumping cyanide in the town water supply. You falsely said "chain reactions, or positive feedback loops, are unproven and have not been observed." As per the links I noted, the causal relation between CO2 and climate is as strong as the link between triggers and bullets, albeit on a much longer time frame.
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Comparing me to holocaust deniers is insulting and abusive.
Well perhaps if you did not defend the indefensible the comparison would not be apt. We are talking about the main real existential threat to human life and you are denying that it is real. The evidence for anthropogenic climate change is as strong as the evidence for Hitler's gas chambers.
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Contrary to your statement, CO2 is not toxic. It's essential to life.
Acharya has responded to this foolish comment.
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You say I am bullying, and you call me a disgrace. You compare me to holocaust deniers. You say I am uninformed based on next to nothing. And you abuse your moderation privileges to edit my post. Who's the bully here Robert? I don't feel comfortable continuing this conversation if my opponent is going to edit my posts without my permission for no good reason.

Readers should note, as I stated above, the only changes I made to James' post, in line with established moderating practice here, were to replace 'url' with 'code' so that our site here is not hotlinking to disinformation sites, and to lock the post. These are not substantive changes, as readers can still copy and paste the disinformation links into their own browser.

James V was the one who entirely deleted his (and my) comments from Acharya's Facebook page. Locking the post is an expedient against such cut and run actions. I stand by the principle that people should not revise content they have posted. And nor should this site be abused to link to disinformation.

My assessment of Watts Up With That is based on moderation policy at the astronomy discussion board Cosmoquest/BAUT, which bans links from WUWT because they are invariably unscientific and are used by trolls to derail constructive discussion.

James V made a scurrilous attack on the Haida people of British Columbia, saying their small salmon project is "potentially more damaging than CO2 could ever be." And he then has the hide to call the Haida "stupid and desperate". Such comments are utterly disgraceful, sowing disinformation and disrespect, while encouraging contempt for a significant potential response to climate change (ocean based algae production).

I hope we can continue to tolerate James V's views here, despite their falsity, as a commitment to free and open debate. But James should not expect a free pass to make scurrilous attacks without challenge.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 3:28 pm 
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Robert Tulip wrote:
James V wrote:
I think it's interesting how people here, of all places, would encourage wave-of-the-hand dismissals, rely on arguments from authority, and encourage people to ignore the other side of the debate.
...I linked to detailed scientific discussion...


I get it: you are allowed to link to relevant sources of information but your opponents may not. Anyways, the point I was making was that I find it ironic that anyone on this forum, of all places, would dismiss work that one has not read because it is contrary to the view of most academics/scientists.

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Adding a teratonne of this "trace gas" (as humans are doing with CO2) is like dumping cyanide in the town water supply.


That is just a bizarre comparison. And you put "trace gas" in quotes as if there is any dispute.

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You falsely said "chain reactions, or positive feedback loops, are unproven and have not been observed." As per the links I noted, the causal relation between CO2 and climate is as strong as the link between triggers and bullets, albeit on a much longer time frame.


I was talking specifically about the hypothesized positive feedback loops that are supposed to amplify the effect of CO2, without which there is no global catastrophe. Contrary to your assertions, these feedbacks are poorly understood and are not cut and dry at all. I supplied a link to Judith Curry's site, co-author of the BEST project’s four research papers, which discusses the many questions on climate sensitivity. You disabled that link, presumably to make it more difficult for people to follow up on their own. If my links were contrary to site policy, show me the policy and REMOVE the links.

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Acharya has responded to this foolish comment.


Yes, and note my response.

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...readers can still cut and paste the disinformation links into their own browser.


As I said above, If my links were contrary to site policy, show me the policy and REMOVE the links. Merely disabling them suggests you are trying to hobble my efforts to present my case.

Regarding facebook, I removed my comments for personal reasons. What facebook does with your response is their business; I have no control over that. You accuse me of cutting and running? I CAME HERE TO THE SOURCE to discuss in detail. That's PLAINLY NOT a cut and run. :roll:

Watts Up With That is the most viewed climate blog in the world, has been featured on Frontline, and is highly representative of the skeptical viewpoint. Why don't you make it official policy that no-one is allowed to link to sites that disagree with you?

If you are seriously against propaganda tactics, why link skeptics to holocaust deniers? That's about as propagandist as you can get.

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My assessment of Watts Up With That is based on moderation policy at the astronomy discussion board...


Are there any other sites whose policies I should familiarize myself with before posting here?

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James V made a scurrilous attack on the Haida people of British Columbia... And he then has the hide to call the Haida "stupid and desperate". Such comments are utterly disgraceful...


What's disgraceful is your twisting of my original comment. I linked to the Globe and Mail (which you de-linked because Canada's "newspaper of record" is obviously a disinformation site.) Here is a relevant passage:

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Russ George, a California businessman who designed the project, believes massive clouds of plankton can suck enough carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to blunt global warming and provide rich nutrients to marine animals and reduce ocean acidification.

But scientists say the experiment poses huge risks.

“Scientists from the U.S. have contacted me. They are really alarmed by this. They are worried. And I personally think it’s scary,” said Maite Maldonado, an associate professor in earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences at the University of British Columbia.

“The consequences of this kind of disturbance to the marine ecosystem can be atrocious . . . and we have to be very careful,” said Ms. Maldonado, who attended the press conference. “I think they should be stopped.”

Evgeny Pakhomov, an associate professor of biological and fisheries oceanography at UBC, said he shares those concerns.
“I don’t like what they’ve done,” he said, noting that while the experiment might show short-term gain in surface blooms, it could cause long-term oxygen depletion at greater depth.

In an e-mail, David Keith, an expert on climate science at Harvard University, questioned the credibility of the project.

“This is hype masquerading as science,” he said.


That you would twist my criticism of this project to make it look like I'm attacking the Haida people is truly disgraceful. How low will you stoop? Why can't you keep the discussion civil and courteous?

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I hope we can continue to tolerate James V's views here, despite their falsity, as a commitment to free and open debate. But James should not expect a free pass to make scurrilous attacks without challenge.


Are my views so intolerable that I'm close to being banned? Sigh.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:14 pm 
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James V wrote:
you are allowed to link to relevant sources of information but your opponents may not.
James, there is a difference between oil industry shilling and sources of information. As I said, if you find any information at WUWT you are welcome to post it. You won't because there is none. Check out http://wottsupwiththat.com/ a Watt watch blog, to see the contempt with which WUWT is regarded by real climate scientists. WUWT are the creationists of climate science.
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I find it ironic that anyone on this forum, of all places, would dismiss work that one has not read because it is contrary to the view of most academics/scientists.
I certainly do not dismiss anything because it is contrarian. I dismiss climate denial because it is blatantly wrong and is pursuing a blatant political agenda which is dangerous for the future of life on earth. I have read a lot of denialist literature, and it is uniformly political ignorant rubbish with no basis in evidence or honesty. Stabilising the global climate is an urgent problem that is being prevented by denialist shills. It is a very bad situation.

If denialists could use arguments that have scholarly integrity, instead of the attorney method of using whatever claims will help them win an ignorant debate, they might deserve some respect.
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Adding a teratonne of this "trace gas" (as humans are doing with CO2) is like dumping cyanide in the town water supply.
That is just a bizarre comparison. And you put "trace gas" in quotes as if there is any dispute.
CO2 and cyanide is an accurate comparison. As James Hansen says in Storms of Our Grandchildren, mining all the shale oil and tar sands of the earth would make a runaway greenhouse effect a mathematical certainty. In this debate, your term "trace gas" is emotive, designed to imply CO2 is harmless. But a runaway greenhouse effect would boil the oceans.

As Lewis Carroll observed in Alice in Wonderland, the walrus and the carpenter discussed why the sea is boiling hot and whether pigs have wings. Surprisingly prescient, since business-as-usual is on track to boil the oceans, aiming to achieve this delightful result by arguments of the same quality as that pigs have wings.
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... feedback loops that are supposed to amplify the effect of CO2 ... are poorly understood
Yes, we do not know if it will take 20 years or 200 years for the sea level to rise 20 meters to the level it was at naturally when CO2 was last at its current level millions of years ago, or if a tipping point to an ice free Arctic Sea will occur next year or in ten years. So you use this scientific uncertainty to argue we should accelerate catastrophe by burning carbon like there is no tomorrow. Brilliant.
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you are trying to hobble my efforts to present my case.
Far from it. I keep asking you to present facts but you obsess about process. Unfortunately the denialist crowd never want to let facts get in the way of a good story. Your links are all there for anyone to read, but this site should not boost the search engine profile of liars.
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Watts Up With That ... is highly representative of the skeptical viewpoint.
Science is skeptical. The denialist nonsense at WUWT makes David Irvine look like a skeptic with his holocaust denial. WUWT is not skeptical, unless you consider an ostrich with its head in the sand to be a skeptic about the existence of lions. Your use of "skeptical" indicates a failure of comprehension on your part.
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Why don't you make it official policy that no-one is allowed to link to sites that disagree with you?
I personally have no problem at all with disagreement, as long as the debate maintains basic standards of evidence and honesty. WUWT fails on these standards.
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If you are seriously against propaganda tactics, why link skeptics to holocaust deniers? That's about as propagandist as you can get.
As Hansen argues, business-as-usual (as promoted by climate denialists) will cause a runaway greenhouse effect if allowed to proceed unchecked. That would cause more suffering than World War Two. People who have delusions on such a dangerous scale deserve to be criticised. As I argued in my review, climate policy is a basic question of good and evil.
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...That you would twist my criticism of this project to make it look like I'm attacking the Haida people is truly disgraceful.
James, you are the one who described the Haida Salmon Restoration Project as a "stupid desperate act" in first raising it in this thread. Calling them stupid and desperate is an attack on the Haida people of Old Massett Village, who are the proponents of this activity. Their website http://www.hsrc1.com/ explains the propaganda and disinformation campaign to which their salmon experiment has been subjected by environmentalists and denialists, out of all proportion to its scale and risk. It appears the attack you support is an unholy alliance between green NGOs, who are intent on reducing energy use, and climate denialists, who see mileage in their climate war in joining this bandwagon.
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Are my views so intolerable that I'm close to being banned?

Apologies if you drew that inference from my call to tolerate your false opinions.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:14 pm 
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Hi James!

Hard to believe you've had three wee ones in the time since we met in person years ago. I bet they are just adorable. Love to your family from me. We had a marvelous time with you and your wife.

Let's not start talking about banning. Believe it or not, James V. was one of the first people on this forum, years ago. We have plenty of leeway here for civil debate about any subject, and I find this one to be of utmost importance. I am completely open to hearing the "other side" of this debate here, and there is no need for rancor, as James personally is not responsible for what is happening. (I should note that I do approve of such rancor now and again, when it is directed at people who have been attacking me personally with the most venomous and vile calumny and mendacity.)

I can understand not wanting to give "link love" to websites pushing what appears to be an abhorrent and erroneous perspective - who is funding that site, by the way? We have removed live links in the past with sites that attack me personally with all manner of calumny and libel. Note that I did not have anything to do with Robert's decisions in this regard. We can leave the polar link standing, but I would submit that the science on that issue appears to be up in the air, as I could provide any number of links that say otherwise, such as:

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Polar Bear

Polar bears are in serious danger of going extinct due to global warming.

Polar bears were the first vertebrate species to be listed by the US Endangered Species Act (ESA) as threatened by extinction primarily because of global warming. This listing happened in 2008 because of the ongoing loss of critical habitat for polar bears, the arctic sea ice on which they live and depend to hunt their almost exclusive prey, seals.

Shrinking Sea Ice

Rising temperatures in the world’s oceans are causing sea ice to disappear for longer and longer periods during the late summer, leaving polar bears insufficient time to hunt. This is a worldwide problem and the ESA has listed polar bears as threatened everywhere in the world they occur. This species occurs only in the arctic and in the subarctic Hudson Bay area. Polar bears can only survive in areas where the oceans freeze, allowing them to hunt seals living under, on or in the frozen polar ice cap.

Orbiting satellites have been able to track the seasonal extent of sea ice since 1979, and the trends are very disturbing for the future of the polar bear. The minimum extent of sea ice occurs in mid-September and new records lows for this minimum are now regular events. The most recent minimum low was set in 2012, surpassing the previous minimum of 2007. The trend is for the last summer sea ice in the arctic to be farther and farther from shore, making it necessary for polar bears to swim increasingly long distances from shore to reach the ice. Worse, the last remaining sea ice is over deep and unproductive waters that yield less prey....

Polar bears need our help and protection to ensure a long, healthy future for the species. The best way you can help polar bears is by reducing your carbon emissions and working with National Wildlife Federation to campaign for reductions in global warming pollutants....

Moreover, we are still evidently dealing with a disturbing decline in the penguin populace in Patagonia, for example, and all the rest of the examples I've already given.

Orange County Denialists

You are correct that I am not an expert on the science of gasses, but the "C02 is good for you" argument is directly out of the denialist playbook - I call such individuals the "Orange County" denialists, because it was from that part of California where I first heard these denials many year ago, shocking at the time. These views were held by Christian fanatics who both denied that humanity was harming the environment and claimed that the world needs to be destroyed for Jesus to return, all at once. At the time, there was no serious science behind these claims, which went like this: Volcanos pump loads of C02 into the environment, much more than humans; therefore, we shouldn't worry about what humans are doing to the environment.

Also, American secretary of the interior James Watts - is that where the website in question gets its name? - became a menacing laughingstock with his Christian fanatical beliefs that it mattered not whether or not we protected the environment, because Jesus would return after everything was destroyed. So, my eyebrows raise just a tad when I hear a rationalist towing this party line.

Moreover, this same religious 'tude is present in what I call the "Stinkin' Earth" mentality, as I have outlined in various articles.

Note that I did not associate you personally with murderous dictators. What I said is that the death toll from climate change will easily give the most murderous human dictators a run for their money. Nothing has changed my opinion in that regard. 1.5 billion people without water could turn out to be the most appalling genocide in history.

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Many Himalayan Glaciers Melting at Alarming Rates

Washington, DC 14 September 2012 – Glaciers in the east and central regions of the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region are retreating at an alarming rate according to a new report released this week by the National Research Council. While the glaciers in the western HKH appear to be stable and possibly growing, glaciers over the rest of the HKH are melting at rates similar to the collapsing glaciers in much of the rest of the world.

Warming is particularly acute at higher elevations of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, which over the past fifty years have warmed at three times the global average.

The report, which analyzes current scientific knowledge about the glaciers in the HKH region and impacts on water resources, notes that glacier melt provides needed water during extreme weather events such as droughts, acting as a ‘buffer’ when water needs are more desperate, although it found that the melt is not likely to significantly impact water resources in the near-term at low elevations where rains and snow-melt are more important. The glaciers are the headwaters for rivers that provide fresh water and irrigation for as many as 1.5 billion people in Asia.

“The number of disastrous droughts and extreme temperature events in Asia have more than doubled over the past twenty years and they are only expected to increase as climate change gets worse,” stated Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. “This report underscores the need to take fast action to protect this critical region including rapid reductions of short-lived climate pollutants particularly black carbon.”

Just reading these articles makes me groan, as the situation seems so very dire, yet we fiddle while Rome burns. As I explain in my "Stinkin' Earth" articles, I myself became involved increasingly in debunking religion after it was made clear to me that religious fanatics cared not for the planet and would not make any effort to help prevent environmental destruction. I've been an environmentalist since the 1960s, when my family was already recycling and using biodegradable products - I thought everyone was, and I was shocked by the lack of action in other parts of the world when I left my childhood home.

As concerns the melting glaciers, note that it's not just scientists in the U.S. or elsewhere making these observations but the people who actually live in these areas. For example, one "guardian" of the Ganges living near its source was quite alarmed some years ago. Again, the people in mountainous regions have observed the glaciers shrinking - and, according to the scientific reports I've seen, they are shrinking. That fact will spell tremendous disaster for much of humanity, not to mention plants and animals.

Despite the debate over the polar bears and the C02 issue, what I said above remains valid. Native peoples everywhere are concerned about environmental degradation, with good cause! Their climate is changing, and pollution seems to play a very big factor in that problem. We cannot pump tons of pollutants into our environment and expect nothing bad to happen. Rationally, we cannot have enormous patches of trash in the oceans and wonder what is killing off marine life.

Arctic Inuit sue U.S. government over global warming pollution

Furthermore, with this climate change, we are evidently seeing much larger and more destructive weather patterns, such as the storms that are the subject of this original discussion.

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Storm Intensity

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest report (2007) states it is likely that “future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing [sea surface temperature increases]”. The scientific, peer reviewed studies used to inform the assessment, as well as studies that have since been published, indicate that climate change will affect the intensity, frequency and paths of strong storm and wave events. They also indicate a global trend towards increased intensity of hurricanes over the past few decades – most notably in the North Atlantic and Indian oceans. Coastal planning efforts rely on historical estimates of sea level, storm frequency and storm wave heights, and hundred year flood levels. This bias on historical data could leave many coastal communities unprepared in the face of climate change.

Is it not claimed that Hurricane Sandy was the biggest in the Atlantic in history?

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